via @numbermuncher: if Obama is losing indepdnts in a swing state by 10 points but still wins, it's not a swing state

ace.mu.nu 31 Oct '12, 6pm

via @numbermuncher: if Obama is losing indepdnts in a swing state by 10 points but still wins, it's not a swing state

« Romney Bringing Out Welfare Attack on Obama As Game-Clincher? | Main | ADP Changes Methodology of Job-Counting; One Analyst Thinks The Change Suggests That Friday's Revisions "Will Be a Disaster" » October 31, 2012 Important Point From NumberMuncher NumberMuncher made a good point on Twitter, a general "I Call Bullshit" statement on the various polls showing Obama with big leads in Ohio, Virginia, and even North Carolina (!!!). It's very simple: Swing states are swing states because neither party has much of a lead in the states. The outcome of any election, then, depends heavily on which way Independents vote. A swing state is a swing state, basically, because the parties are tied there (basically, within a few points), and the Independents play tiebreaker. Any state in which Obama loses Independents by six, eight, or ten points but somehow -- as these polls claims -- w...

Full article: http://ace.mu.nu/archives/334446.php

Tweets

@WannabeAnglican » 31 Oct '12, 7pm
@PPPPolling Not to mention absurd clown polls in OH, FLA, VA ...>> [link]
@JE_Schmitty » 31 Oct '12, 7pm
ha, here's the link [link]
@re4mdjd » 31 Oct '12, 7pm
More poll analytical brilliance from @AceofSpadesHQ via @NumbersMuncher >>>> [link]
@minkabrown » 31 Oct '12, 6pm
RT @AceofSpadesHQ: via @numbermuncher: if Obama is losing indepdnts in a swing state by 10 points but still wins, it's not a swing state [link]
@Underdown » 31 Oct '12, 6pm
BIZARRE COONCIDENCE: Pollsters keep finding Obama leads in "swing states" despite losing amongst independents [link]
@AceofSpadesHQ » 31 Oct '12, 6pm
via @numbermuncher: if Obama is losing indepdnts in a swing state by 10 points but still wins, it's not a swing state [link]
@mulanrulz » 01 Nov '12, 12am
RT @AceofSpadesHQ: via @numbermuncher: if Obama is losing indepdnts in a swing state by 10 points but still wins, it's not a swing state [link]
@jmaysnc » 31 Oct '12, 8pm
RT @AceofSpadesHQ: via @numbermuncher: if Obama is losing indepdnts in a swing state by 10 points but still wins, it's not a swing state [link]
@CrimsonMama14 » 31 Oct '12, 7pm
RT @AceofSpadesHQ: via @numbermuncher: if Obama is losing indepdnts in a swing state by 10 points but still wins, it's not a swing state [link]
@Polliwogette » 31 Oct '12, 7pm
RT @AceofSpadesHQ: via @numbermuncher: if Obama is losing indepdnts in a swing state by 10 points but still wins, it's not a swing state [link]
@DarylT » 31 Oct '12, 6pm
RT @AceofSpadesHQ: via @numbermuncher: if Obama is losing indepdnts in a swing state by 10 points but still wins, it's not a swing state [link]