31 Oct '12, 6pm

via @numbermuncher: if Obama is losing indepdnts in a swing state by 10 points but still wins, it's not a swing state

« Romney Bringing Out Welfare Attack on Obama As Game-Clincher? | Main | ADP Changes Methodology of Job-Counting; One Analyst Thinks The Change Suggests That Friday's Revisions "Will Be a Disaster" » October 31, 2012 Important Point From NumberMuncher NumberMuncher made a good point on Twitter, a general "I Call Bullshit" statement on the various polls showing Obama with big leads in Ohio, Virginia, and even North Carolina (!!!). It's very simple: Swing states are swing states because neither party has much of a lead in the states. The outcome of any election, then, depends heavily on which way Independents vote. A swing state is a swing state, basically, because the parties are tied there (basically, within a few points), and the Independents play tiebreaker. Any state in which Obama loses Independents by six, eight, or ten points but somehow -- as these polls claims -- w...

Full article: http://ace.mu.nu/archives/334446.php

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