27 Feb '13, 3pm

ISAF: Woops, Afghan violence didn't decrease in 2012: Last September, we began covering the International Secu...

Last September, we began covering the International Security Assistance Force's (ISAF) "monthly trends" on violence in Afghanistan. [See here , here and here .] ISAF, US military officials, and officials in Washington had been citing an overall decrease in the number of "enemy initiated attacks" (EIAs) as evidence that the Taliban's "momentum" had been broken. We looked at the data and came to a different conclusion: While the surge of American-led forces in southern Afghanistan clearly made a difference, the overall level of violence in Afghanistan remained worse than prior to the surge. Late last year, ISAF published a new report supposedly showing that the number of EIAs had decreased in 2012, as compared to 2011, by 7 percent. The numbers seemed fishy to us for a variety of reasons, but not entirely implausible. In any event, it turns out that the supposed decrease was...

Full article: http://www.longwarjournal.org/threat-matrix/archives/2013...

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