31 Jul '12, 9am

Hezbollah hedging - What is the game and where is it headed?

Moving forward, therefore, the region is analogous to the British kids' game Grandmother's Footsteps. In the game someone is “Grandmother” and the others try to creep up and touch her without being detected. They can move when she is not looking but must freeze when she looks their way. In the region all parties watch one another and inch forward toward their goals hoping to avoid detection. But who is Grandmother? Maybe not Israel, maybe not Iran or Saudi Arabia, but most likely the U.S. Parties keep their eyes wide open observing competing entities who strive to out-maneuver one another. In the spirit of this analogy, the U.S. is unlikely to act decisively as Grandmother at least until after the Presidential election in November 2012, which means entities can ease forward assuming nothing will likely happen even if detected. But shortly after the election, the U.S. may b...

Full article: http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/grandmothers-footsteps-h...

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